Some days it takes me about 5 or 10 minutes before calling “bull” on something which gives me a topic to write about. Not today. Today I turned on CNBC to immediately hear “Has gold lost its luster?” and “Usually when gold changes direction it stays that way for 20 years or more so it might be 2030 before we see $1,900 again.” Really? Are you people complete idiots? 20 years? What, 20 years to the downside but this bull market is a 13 year abortion? Forget about “time,” why has Gold rallied to the current levels in the first place? Fundamentals?
Surely it cannot be the fundamentals of gold. Definitely not the fact that global supply has not met global demand in over some 20+ years. It couldn’t be because the Fed has printed wildly and blown its balance sheet to oblivion. 20 years? Do you really believe the U.S. Treasury will even exist in its current form by then? Oh yes, I know, gold is down from where QE 3 and 4 were announced so let’s extrapolate the move. “The move” which by the way is being caused by high frequency trades of paper contracts with no gold available for delivery. “The move” which the CFTC does nothing (wink wink) and cannot find any perpetrators who “make” the price in the paper markets.
Relax people, this must be the 20th “bear market” for gold and silver in the last 10 years. Do you remember the last campaign? I think they called it “the death of gold.” I checked on mine and believe it or not… it’s still shiny! No wheezing, coughing or clutching its chest in pain… nope, it’s still there. …And no matter what Washington, Wall St., CNBC or even Mayor Bloomberg want you to believe or legislate… it’s still MONEY!
In fact, I would wager that some 20 years or so from now, no one and I mean NO ONE on the planet will part themselves with even one ounce of gold for ANY amount of today’s dollars. Do you see what I just said? I said (in much simpler terms) that QE to infinity, unlimited printing, unlimited debt AND a dollar that will at some point not spend… for ANYTHING much less REAL money!
Yes, yes… the fundamentals. Were gold to actually back all of our current debt owned by foreigners it would be somewhere around $10,000. If it were to back all debt it would be well north of $20,000. …and if you include all of the guarantees, promises and future benefits? Well over $100,000. So we are being told that gold and silver are now “dead in the water” investments with no future at all. Everyone is so down trodden, scared and ready to commit the financial suicide that this “operation” was designed for in the first place. How many times in the past did they “shake the tree” like they are now? 10 times already? Why would the result be any different now other than the fact that there is now less gold available to deliver and more paper outstanding than previous “shakes.” How many times has “top” been called? “Bear market in gold and silver”?
Actually, you could have told me 13 years ago with Gold at $260 that it would rise to $1,600 and I would have believed you. However, if you told me the sentiment would be worse at $1,600 per ounce than it was back in the “lonely” $260 days I would have laughed until I broke a couple of ribs! Seriously, it does not matter what “price” they can knock the metals down to. It doesn’t matter how loud the “top” calls are screamed. What does matter is that you own precious metals when the world’s central banks and treasuries default us into a banking holiday. This is math. It is pure logic. It is not rocket science and I am no brilliant mind. This is just pure common sense and street smarts. Please, spend some time over this long weekend and think about why you purchased metals in the first place. Have events passed for which you originally made purchase to protect yourselves from? Is any bank, broker, central bank or treasury stronger financially today than from when you made your purchases?
Just because the “made for TV” paper price of gold and silver are less today than they were 2 or 3 months ago it does not mean that they are less “valuable.” If you can understand this previous sentence and what I am truly saying then sit back, relax and enjoy your weekend. If you don’t… then re read it a few times until you do. If you still can’t understand it then, well, sell all of your precious metals investments and buy AAPL and Treasury bonds. At least you will “feel good” …until you don’t. On a side note, I have often thought that it must be a wonderful thing to be “oblivious” and not have a care in the world…