Is this the last time we ever see the “market valuation” of U.S. financial strength – i.e, the 10-year Treasury yield – above 2.0%? It’s quite possible; as per what I wrote in Thursday’s Audioblog, the pathetic, Fed-orchestrated rate goosing around last week’s FOMC minutes publication added a mere 13 basis points – to 2.02% – before losing nearly all those manipulated gains following Friday’s so-called “strong” NFP report. Putting these meager gains in perspective, they were barely half the manipulated 25 basis point gain around last month’s FOMC meeting – as the Fed desperately sought to prevent universal recognition of the “most damning proof yet of QE failure” – which took just five trading days to evaporate. Per the premise of said Audioblog, it’s just a matter of time before the “Yellen Reversal” arrives – i.e., Fed admission that the “recovery” is dead, and simultaneous launch of QE4. And when it does, all remaining Central bank credibility – and ability to “save the day” with new money-printing schemes – will be permanently destroyed. Not to mention, the “New York Gold Pool’s” control over paper gold and silver prices. And now that “that other Achilles’ Heel,” of plunging oil prices, is loudly trumpeting global collapse – and taking the U.S.’s only successful industry of the last six years with it -, that historic day looms nearer than ever.
As for said “strong” NFP report, recall what I wrote Friday morning, just hours before its publication.
Regarding (the December NFP report), my advice is the same as always regarding the “island of lies” reporting of the nation’s most politically-sensitive statistic. Which is, ignore the fraudulent headline numbers and look into the internals; which unquestionably, will reveal a true unemployment situation, at best, on a par with the 1930s.”
Well, the BLS didn’t disappoint, raising last month’s “high bar for government lying” another notch – to the point that my prediction of universal recognition of “the glaring weakness in true U.S. unemployment” may have finally been achieved. Which is probably why stocks, Treasury yields, and commodity prices (led by crude oil) plunged, whilst gold and silver prices surged. To wit, all one has to do to understand just how felonious the BLS’ lies are, is check out the NFP report itself. As if you do, you’ll see the “seasonally adjusted” 251,000 jobs supposedly gained in December were based on a non-seasonally adjusted 65,000 job loss.
Better yet, whilst the “unemployment rate” dropped from 5.8% to 5.6%, the Labor Participation Rate plunged to a new 38-year low, as a whopping 451,000 people exited the labor force in December. Throw in the fact that average hourly earnings declined at the fastest rate since the BLS started calculating this measure eight years ago; and yet again, essentially all new “jobs” were garnered by senior citizens unable to retire because they have little or no savings, and you can see why the true nature of America’s expanding employment Depression is getting easier to understand.
Well, maybe not by the hedge funds we are supposed to be in awe of – which are not only failing at an epic rate despite a six-year equity bull market, but are more short the 10-year Treasury bond than at any time in the past five years. However, for anyone with half a brain, it’s becoming exponentially easier to understand. As for the hedge funds still remaining, they are not only massively short Treasury bonds as QE4 approaches, but heavily long the most overvalued stock market in U.S. history – per the below quote from Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management, which manages nearly $350 billion of assets. Gee, what could possibly go wrong?
“The median New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stock is currently at a postwar record-high P/E multiple, a record high relative to cash flow, and near a record high relative to book value!”
Which brings me to today’s topic, “things I am grateful for”; spoken facetiously, of the myriad expressions of government and Central bank hubris rapidly accelerating the end of their control over financial markets, economic activity, and geopolitical hegemony. In no particular order, here is a summary list of what I’m “grateful” for.
1. I am grateful the U.S. government is stupid enough to lie so thoroughly about economic data, it is rapidly fostering the aforementioned universal disbelief in anything it publishes.
2. I am grateful for the “great deformation” of capital markets, caused by Central bank money printing and Wall Street financial engineering, which has caused such massive overcapacity in industrial commodities – like crude oil – that prices may be depressed for years, or perhaps decades. Regarding “black gold,” the last time the U.S. rig count dropped this rapidly – in 2008 – its ultimate decline exceeded 50%! Remember, oil exploration and production accounts for nearly a third of U.S. corporate spending, and nearly a fifth of U.S. junk bond issuance.
3. I am grateful Wall Street was dumb enough to follow up the subprime mortgage debacle of the mid-2000s with the subprime auto bubble that is bursting today, which will only accelerate its ultimate collapse. Of course, subprime mortgage lending is now being spearheaded by the government itself; as are subprime student loans, and countless other debts that will ultimately fall in taxpayers’ laps.
4. I am grateful that the Swiss National Bank – led by “Lady Macbeth” Thomas Jordan – sold Switzerland’s citizenry out by using every propaganda and market manipulation tool in its arsenal to prevent the “Save our Swiss Gold” referendum from passing. Six weeks later, the Franc is at a multi-year low (with its Euro peg on the verge of collapsing); Franc-priced gold has surged 10%; negative interest rates have been instituted; and Europe is on the verge of financial collapse. Said referendum was the last chance for monetary sanity to be established somewhere; and following its rejection, the path to hyperinflation is more direct, and clear, than ever.
5. I am grateful Scotland didn’t secede from the United Kingdom. You see, 90% of North Sea oil production is based in Scottish waters; and thus, the horrific oil price crash will disproportionately impact Scotland, forcing the Bank of England to print still more money to “bail out” the collapsing Scottish economy.
6. I am grateful to Goldman Sachs for helping Greece hide hundreds of billions of Euros of debt, accelerating the collapse of the doomed-from-the-start, continent-destroying Euro currency experiment. The Euro hit a new ten-year low this week, which is quite scare given its only 15 years old. And once Syriza takes over Greece after the January 25th elections, don’t be surprised if a catastrophic, irreversible “PIIGS” crisis puts the Euro’s very existence into question. Gee, I wonder what direction European gold and silver purchases will take.
7. I am grateful for the relentless hype of an expected strong holiday spending season; let alone, equally relentless hype of it being “salvaged” following catastrophic “Black Friday” weekend sales. Wednesday morning, December sales are expected to be reported as negative; and in the coming weeks, the “retail Armageddon” I forecast in my “2015 predictions” will arrive with a vengeance.
8. I am grateful that the Chinese government will be stupid enough this Tuesday (January 20th) to report 7% or so GDP growth; in doing so, solidifying global understanding that “all economic data are lies.” I mean, how anyone can believe China’s economy is growing at all when its PMI diffusion indices are below 50; the rest of the world is contracting; and oh yeah, China’s historic real estate and construction bubble is collapsing, is beyond me.
9. I am grateful that global Central banks, under the guidance of fraudulent accounting rules generated by the evil IMF, have blatantly overstated the amount of their gold reserves. This will only foster the universal realization of unprecedented supply tightness that much faster.
10. Last but not least, I am grateful for the U.S. dollar’s recent, hyperbolic surge – taking the U.S. dollar index above its ten-year trading range. As first noted in September’s “single most PM-bullish factor imaginable,” the dollar surge is decidedly not due to “relative strength” of the U.S. economy; but instead, fear of global economic collapse. To wit, the higher the dollar index rises, the more catastrophic global implications it will have – yielding the potential for hyperinflation, geopolitical tension, and WAR.
Hopefully, you understand I am not actually “grateful” for these horrific circumstances. They were set in stone when the gold standard was abandoned 44 years ago; and trust us, it’s no coincidence they are occurring simultaneously. The end of history’s largest fiat Ponzi scheme is nigh; and the way things are headed, the “big one” could commence any day now. And when it does, if you haven’t already protected yourself with REAL MONEY, you may never get the chance to do so. Certainly, not at prices remotely close to today’s historically suppressed levels.
PROTECT YOURSELF, and do it NOW!
Call Miles Franklin at 800-822-8080, and talk to one of our brokers. Through industry-leading customer service and competitive pricing, we aim to EARN your business.
Andy,
Loved how you articulated the silver lining behind all the recent shenanigans. Karmic payback will be multiplied. We should plaster a gallery of shrills so that they can’t show their faces in public in the future for all their wrong doings.
Thanks.
a
Andy been following you for a few years now. Are things different now? Has it started, the collapse? 22 yr old at work says why can’t we go to 30 trillion in debt if everyone else keeps printing too? I told him companies may want a gold backed yuan for their Hyundai instead of a paper dollar and once that happens it’s over for usa. Not sure if accurate but why take paper dollars for real items of value?
Keith,
I’m not sure I could be more clear, such as saying three months ago – you know, before the oil price collapse, that…
/2008-is-back-with-one-temporary-exception
a
PS – I lost my insurance and was NOT able to keep my doctor.
Those at the top wouldn’t tell the truth if they had to.
I’ve been reading your articles for a while now, and every new article seems to surpass the past article in the number and tenacity of adjectives to describe “these horrific circumstances.”
I am very well educated, and I have watched how the economic environment around the world continues to deteriorate at an “exponential” clip, yet how things will play out once some of these shoes drop, because I am not of the opinion of an Armageddon-type situation where the sh*t hits the fan all at once. There will be Dog and Pony shows along the way, not to mention a presidential election.
I own a little gold, but it is, in general, too far out of my price range given my $100k+ in student loans that I am servicing from my many years of hard work at institutions of higher education (although Obama suggesting kids going to community college their first two years for free pisses me off – where is my handout?), and silver in the form of bars, government minted coins, and “junk” silver.
So, I’m doing the best I can, and I stopped investing in the stock market as soon as the “chartists,” valuing equity purely on “technical” (self-fulfilling prophecies) instead of intrinsic value derived from fundamental valuations, and…..fund managers chasing yields in the junk bond market….the yield on junk bonds is ridiculous…
QUESTION:
When hyperinflation does come, or some of these shoes do start to drop and panic starts to occur as the wool is pulled away from people’s eyes, what do I do with my little gold and silver stash? Do I use it to barter for goods that I want because fiat currencies will be best used to keep warm in the winter by burning them in the fire place? Do I sell it to APMEX and other PM buyers who sell to those desperate to protect what they have left post holding the bag? Or do I go to a coin show or start selling on eBay? This kinda makes sense, but what would I be selling my PM for? Wheel barrel loads of even more fiat currency? What good will that do me?
In Venezuela, people horde dollars as the government continues to devalue the Bolivar “fuente” because after each devaluation, they can exchange their dollars for EVEN MORE Bolivars.
Can one even profit in these situations, to improve their own economic standing? Is that possible, or in the end, is it only about preservation of wealth via physical stores of wealth? Does being able to attain more Bolivars, in essence, just enable you to keep up your desired expenditures in a hyper-inflation environment, so I can continue to afford the brand new *used* car I want?
This is what continues to allude me. When these days come, what does one do with their precious metals? If its purpose is to protect wealth, when the crisis is over, will it still just be sitting there, and I will still have to wear an ankle bracelet due to the magnitude of my student loans labeling me as Too Indebted To Fail???
Can someone explain to me what this looks like?
DJ,
We don’t “invest” in PMs to make money, and certainly I don’t have a “target price” or end point. We hold them as savings in an environment of currency debauchery, knowing they will hold their value whilst currencies collapse, as they always do. As for your other questions, I wrote the below article several years ago to answer all “what if” questions regarding the future…
/priceless-precious-metals-vs-worthless-dollars
a
Andrew,
I read your article, and your answer to every question or concern of, “WOULD YOU RATHER HOLD PRICELESS PRECIOUS METALS OR WORTHLESS DOLLARS?” does not really answer much. This is just my opinion, so I hope you can respect it, and are still willing to post this, since I have some follow-up comments and questions (some bloggers get offended, or don’t want to look bad when questioned, and censor people’s views, more often than not).
1) You never mentioned in your article, possibly because of the context in which people have asked you these questions, but the President HAS confiscated people’s gold in the past, via Executive Order 6102, on April 5th, 1933 – Franklin D. Roosevelt. Now, we all know that it didn’t work very well, and a lot of gold was turned in, and there were loopholes in terms of the definition of “collectible coins.” Yet, when gold was close to $2,000/oz, there were many “behind closed door discussions” of the president issuing a similar type of executive order. FDR set a precedence in 1933, and given our president is a former attorney, I wouldn’t assume he doesn’t know that precedence can allow him to get away with things, regardless of what the public wants or says, because he just brain washes them with his speeches.
When this occurred, you HAD TO exchange your gold for dollars, so if Fiat currency is a complete failure, why would I want to do that? Why would I want to take something that is “PRICELESS” for something that has manipulated for the past 40+ years?
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=14611
2) I don’t really care what your, or anybody else’s, “target price” of any PM is, as I know how to value most assets using a variety of different valuation methods, or I can just pull my own number out of my butt, like most do.
*The question is, what will the market look like?* You say the yen, euro, yuan, pound, dollar, and all other fiat currencies will fail due to this long running ponzi scheme, which I do not disagree, but if fiat currency fails, how will the market change? How will we pay for goods and services? Will we barter again? Will be take 1 oz silver coins to the grocery store to buy food? How will business continue?
Maybe there isn’t an answer for this situation, but if we’ve seen this in history so many times, what happened then?
3) And this is just an offshoot to 2) but if PM is a store of wealth that is priceless, if I have no way of using it when necessary, hence what will business and market operations look like in a currency collapse, it doesn’t give me a lot of confidence to put more and more of my money into PM. Because, based on your 2012 article, and I may have not understood, it does sound like people just sit on their PMs until things get figured out, but it doesn’t say what happens in between.
Maybe I am not making any sense, and maybe your intellect is far superior than mine and I am that dumb*ss “Stump,” but I think it is a legitimate question regarding how markets will function in this time of crisis. If I have PM at Miles Franklin, will I be able to take delivery of some of it, little by little, so I can scrape off shavings of gold to pay for consumer products and food? What does the market look like? And as I mentioned, I am not looking for target prices, or investment advice, just enlightenment on what happens after a currency crash.
I appreciate your hard work and great articles! Thank you for your patience with my, possibly ignorant questions.
DJ
DJ
DJ,
I’m sorry, but this is too much to deal with.
I don’t know what the world will look like, but holding gold and silver, I will be far more prepared.
If you are fearful of the worst case scenario, prepare for such and hope for the best. But I cannot tell you what will happen, only that everyone has their own personal “protection continuum” to adhere to…
/the-protection-continuum
a